Space & Astronomy/Space and Astronomy (October 1993).iso/mac/TEXT/SPACEDIG/V13_0/V13_075.TXT

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Subject: SPACE Digest V13 #075

SPACE Digest                                      Volume 13 : Issue 75

Today's Topics:
          POTENTIAL MAJOR FLARE WARNING - ATTENTION
           Re: space news from Dec 17 AW&ST
           Re: space news from Dec 17 AW&ST
              Re: SPACE Digest V13 #041

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Subject: POTENTIAL MAJOR FLARE WARNING - ATTENTION
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            /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                     POTENTIAL MAJOR FLARE WARNING

                         ATTENTION  ATTENTION

            /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\


                           January 25, 1991


ATTENTION:

     A significant surge of solar activity has begun.  Two very significant
and very large active regions have developed and are now capable of spawning
major energetic flare activity.  In addition, significant activity has been
observed on the eastern limb.  Loops and an associated flare was observed
near S14E90 today.  The solar flux has exploded to a value of 244 and is
expected to rise perhaps in excess of 260 by the time the peak is reached.
The sunspot number has likewise experienced a dramatic increase and is now
reported at a value of 216 (although it will likely climb quite higher
as the eastern limb region(s) rotate into view).

     This warning presently applies to Regions 6462 (S15E32) and
Region 6466 (S09E37).  THESE REGIONS ARE CAPABLE OF SPAWNING VERY STRONG
MAJOR FLARES ANYTIME OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 7 DAYS!  PROTON FLARING IS A
STRONG POSSIBILITY FROM THESE REGIONS.

     Region 6462 has an FKI optical configuration and now sports a potent
Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration.  Magnetic gradients in this region are
HIGH.  It covers an area of 3,780 million square kilometers and encompasses
a total of 59 sunspots.  It has an angular extent of 18 degrees.  MAJOR
FLARING FROM THIS REGION MAY BE IMMINENT!

     Region 6466 also contains an FKI optical configuration and contains
a strong Beta-Delta configuration.  Magnetic gradients in this region are
also HIGH.  This region contains 42 sunspots within an area of 2,970 million
square kilometers.  It has an angular extent of 17 degrees.  MAJOR FLARING
FROM THIS REGION IS ALSO IMMINENT!

     At 03:18 UT on 24 January, a long-duration class M3.2/SN flare was
generated jointly by Regions 6462 and 6466.  The duration of this flare was
an enormous 173 minutes (2 hours, 53 minutes)!  It was accompanied by
significant radio bursts as well as Type II and Type IV sweep frequency
events.  The flare location was at S19E42 and was associated with a strong
5,800 s.f.u. (solar flux unit) radio burst at 245 MHz.  It produced a
SID/SWF between 03:18 UT and 06:11 UT, affecting frequencies up to 13 MHz.
This flare WILL produce a terrestrial impact with the earth (see below).

     The Space Environment Services Center has issued a condition YELLOW
alert status for potential PCA activity.  Translated, this means that if
a major flare occurs in either Region 6462, or 6466, the probability that
the flare will eject energetic protons capable of producing potentially
significant PCA activity, is very high.

     MAJOR ENERGETIC FLARING WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM REGIONS 6462 AND/OR 6466
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 TO 7 DAYS (possibly longer).  WATCH FOR IMPENDING
MAJOR FLARE ALERTS.


RECENT MINOR FLARE TERRESTRIAL IMPACT FORECAST

     The class M3.2/SN long-duration event which was accompanied by
Type II and a moderate Type IV sweep frequency events is expected to produce
a terrestrial impact.  The accompanying shock is expected to reach the
earth late on 26 January through 27 January.  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to reach minor to major storm levels over high latitudes, but
should be mostly active to very active over middle and low latitudes.  There
is a risk of minor storming over middle latitudes.

     An auroral storm may materialize over high latitudes on 26/27 January
in response to the enhanced corpuscular radiation from this long duration
flare.  The auroral activity will be moderate with possible periods of high
activity over high latitudes.  Activity over middle latitudes should remain
confined to mostly moderate levels, but some localized area's of high auroral
activity may become visible over middle latitudes (particularly the northerly
middle latitudes).

     HF propagation conditions will become markedly degraded late on 26
January through 27 January.  Moderate to high levels of distortion, noise,
fading and flutter could be experienced, if activity reaches or surpasses
the levels currently predicted.  High latitudes will likely experience very
poor radio propagation conditions late on 26 January through to 28 January.

     VHF signals could experience some interesting phenomenon on 26/27
January, particularly over the northerly middle and high latitudes.  There is
a substantial possibility for auroral backscatter communications on VHF
frequencies (6 meters to 2 meters) late in the day on 26 January and into
27 January.  The best periods to attempt backscatter communications will be
near sunset and near midnight (+/- a few hours).  VHF signals will likely
become degraded late on 26 January through 27 January as intense ionospheric
ionization forms near and in the auroral zone during these potentially stormy
days.

     Active geophysical conditions and degraded radio conditions are expected
to persist until about 28 January (barring any significant solar outbursts,
which seem quite likely at the present time).  It should be noted that the
start-time of the degraded conditions may not occur until sometime on 27
January.  However, models indicate the shock velocity should be high enough
to impact with the earth late on 26 January or early on 27 January (UT time).


POTENTIAL MAJOR FLARE WARNING SUMMARY

     - MAJOR ENERGETIC FLARING IS POSSIBLE IN TWO ACTIVE SOLAR REGIONS.

     - THERE IS A STRONG POSSIBILITY FOR POTENTIALLY INTENSE PCA AND
       SATELLITE PROTON ACTIVITY FROM MAJOR FLARING (IF IT MATERIALIZES).

     - PROTON FLARES ARE VERY POSSIBLE.

     - INTENSE SID/SWF EVENTS ARE LIKELY OVER SUNLIT AREAS OF THE EARTH
       IF MAJOR FLARING OR PROTON FLARING OCCURS.

     - TERRESTRIAL IMPACTS COULD BE HIGH IF PROTON FLARING BEGINS ANYTIME
       WITHIN THE NEXT FOUR TO SIX DAYS.

     - PCA ALERT STATUS:  CONDITION *YELLOW*.

     - HIGH-LATITUDE PCA-INDUCED RADIO BLACKOUT WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED.
       RADIO BLACKOUTS OVER HIGH LATITUDES ARE POSSIBLE IF PROTON FLARING
       OCCURS.

            /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

------------------------------

Date: 21 Jan 91 07:02:18 GMT
From: swrinde!zaphod.mps.ohio-state.edu!samsung!cs.utexas.edu!sun-barr!newstop!exodus!norge.Eng.Sun.COM![e-mail]  (John McKernan)
Subject: Re: space news from Dec 17 AW&ST

[e-mail] (Henry Spencer) writes:
>Uh, where is this "man-rated HLV"?  I don't see it in current inventory.
>And if it's not, then the Shuttle *does* figure in NASA's plans for this
>decade, at least, and that means replacement orbiters will be needed.
>Maintenance of the shuttle fleet requires an orbiter supply, and said
>maintenance can be abandoned only when the fleet itself is about to be
>abandoned.  That won't happen soon.

While the shuttle could be crucial for NASA's program into 21st century,
that does not mean that the planned fleet of four is a minimum requirement.
After all the shuttle should only be used for missions requiring manned
presence, and those are rare. A couple of shuttles would probably be
adequate.

I also don't think it would cost that much to man-rate one of the more
reliable, smaller launchers such as the Delta, if NASA were willing to
accept a little more risk of launcher failure. Given that putting men
into orbit is still a very primitive, chancy business, I think NASA
should acknowledge and accept that risk in any case.

John L. McKernan.                                                  [e-mail]
Disclaimer: These are my opinions but, shockingly enough, not necessarily Sun's
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   "It's kind of a macho thing,
    programmers are always trying to be weirder than their machines."

------------------------------

Date: Mon, 21 Jan 91 08:47:14 -0500
From: "Allen W. Sherzer" <[e-mail]>
Subject: Re: space news from Dec 17 AW&ST
Newsgroups: sci.space
Cc:

In article <F-6^X6&@rpi.edu> you write:
>Getting NASA to accept the risk is not your problem.  Your problem is getting
>Dan Rather and hence John Q. Public to accept the higher risk.  The U. S.
>manned space program almost ceased to exist in 1986 due to 1 failure in 25
>flights.

That's not why it happened. For years NASA had been telling people that
the Shuttle was safe. In fact, it was so safe that they could send up
congresscritters and even a teacher. It turned out that not only wasn't
it nearly that safe but it was being run in a manner which made it even
less safe.

Had NASA been up front with the risks and run a better operation the
Chalanger disaster PR fallout wouldn't have been that bad. After all,
Apollo 1 didn't come close to killing Apollo.

  Allen
--
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
|Allen W. Sherzer | America does best when it accepts a challenging mission. |
|   [e-mail]   | We invent well under pressure. Conversely, we stagnate   |
|                 | when caution prevails.   -- Buzz Aldrin                  |

------------------------------

Date: 23 Jan 91 03:58:12 GMT
From: zephyr.ens.tek.com!tektronix!sequent!crg5![e-mail]  (Nick Szabo)
Subject: Re: SPACE Digest V13 #041

In article <[e-mail]> [e-mail] (Tommy Mac) writes:

>Next Colony After The Moon on Ganymede?  Are you nuts?

Please, I myself have just been accused of flaming, let's keep this
at least semi-civilized.


>No offense guys, but I think your missing some pretty important steps.  Maybe
>you'd rather use Ganymede because of it's interesting location, but it's too
>far away and there's not much (unique) that's there.

The Jupiter system contains the most unique features of any in
our solar system. You might want to read my post of c. 2 weeks ago, in
which I showed how Jupiter's magnetic field can be tapped for electrical
energy at a cost of 1/10 of 1% of that on Earth or from Earth-orbiting
solar power satellites.  This kind of energy is not available anywhere
else in the solar system.  Fusion isotopes can be harvested from Jupiters'
atmosphere.   All elements needed for life and most industry are
available.  Heavy elements that could be scarce (Galileo may tell
us) can be introduced by capturing asteroids.  The plentiful energy also
allows for new high-energy industries such as isotope and antimatter
production.

Unlike SPS, asteroid mining, and other industry bootstrap schemes,
energy production at Jupiter can be started with today's launchers at
today's launch prices.  The main breakthroughs needed are technological:
developing the ability to extract large amounts of conducting material
(such as aluminum or high-temperature superconductor) from space material
and manufacture it into a cable, with 2-hour RTLT teleoperation.  Not
easy, but we have made much progress in teleoperation in the last two
decades while making no progress in the lowering of launch costs, and
there is every reason to expect this trend to continue.


>....
>Anyway, I think a second colony (assuming the first is on the moon) could more
>easily and practically be built in:
>
>Solar orbit at 1 A.U   :  Energy harvesting or Apollo Asteroid Mining Station

Electricity is at least 3 orders of magnitude cheaper at Jupiter.  Asteroid
mining can best be carried out where there is plentiful, inexpensive,
and very large amounts of energy available; namely Jupiter.


>Solar orbit at any A.U.:  Energy , Materials if between 3+6 A.U (Asteroids)

Given the ability to track all large comets and asteroids in the solar
system (which science funding willing we will have in c. 15 years),
asteroids can be easily moved to wherever desired in the solar system,
using today's launchers at today's launch prices.  We use the solar
system to do the work for us:

* Gravity well manipulation using Venus, Mars, and Jupiter.
* Aerobraking using Venus, Mars, and Jupiter.
* Cometary aerobraking: using carefully aimed collisions with
  newly vaporized comets to vector asteroids.

The large cost of energy in the asteroid belt (unless it can be
transmitted from Jupiter) makes it impractical to mine, refine,
and launch significant quantities of material back to Earth from
the Belt.  The low cost of energy at Jupiter makes such high-energy
activities economical.


>Earth orbit            :  Stopover, cheap tourism, convenience stores
>L-5                    :  Alternative to Earth Orbit

These will likely hold most of the off-Earth population, but will not
be self-sufficient.


>[more stuff assuming Jupiter does not have much available energy]
>Sorry if I sound like I don't like ganymeade, but it's 900,000 miles away.

This is a very important argument against Jupiter -- the round-trip travel
time of at least 4 years without significant boost adds greatly to the
costs of doing business on Jupiter, as perceived by an investor.

The economics of the solar system are very interesting.  I will use a
couple of business schemes as examples:

(a) Mining asteroids at the distance of Jupiter
(b) Transmitting power from Jupiter to Earth

For this analysis the $numbers are made up and not important; the
relationship between $$ and time is.  Let's say $15e9 to develop and
launch, and set up the equipment.  Since this is high-risk, time cost
of money is 18%/year.  Also WAG that we must replace $6e9 of machinery
every year.

Annual cash flow for the mining project will look something like this:

-1            ($1e9)
-2
-4
-8                      (launch: total development costs $15e9)
0; 4 years              (round-trip travel & setup time)
6; indefinitely         ($12e9 revenue - $6e9 costs: 100% gross margins)

Net present value (NPV) of this cash flow at 18% is >$0, which
means that if the numbers I pulled out of the air were realistic,
it would be a good investment.

The annual market/development costs ratio is 12/15 for the
mining scheme (a) is 80%.  In other words, due to the round-trip travel
time to Jupiter and the time cost of money, we need an annual market
equal to 80% of the development costs, sustainable at 100% gross margins.
If the Fed dropped rates just 3%, we could get by with a market equal to
58% of development costs.  For Mars (two years round trip or half the
travel time) we only need a market equal to 46% of development costs to
provide an 18% return.  The Moon (0 years) needs a 34% market.  The
Jupiter power scheme (b) returns its product at the speed of light, so that
like Mars the market/development cost ratio is 46%.

Note that while the time advantages of the Moon and (to a lesser extent)
the asteroids and Mars are significant, they are not overwhelming.  A
1000/1 ratio between the cost of energy at the Moon and Jupiter
dwarfs the time cost of money ratio (1/2.35).


--
Nick Szabo            [e-mail]
Embrace Change...  Keep the Values...  Hold Dear the Laughter...

------------------------------

End of SPACE Digest V13 #075
*******************